September CPI due Wednesday, with energy expected to lift inflation before Fed meeting

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to publish September 2026 consumer price data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 14. Forecasts point to a faster annual headline rate driven by energy costs, with core inflation expected to hold steady.

It is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve meets on October 27-28. As of October 14, none of the sources reviewed for this article had published the actual September figures, so the CPI figures below are forecasts and August results.

What forecasters expect from headline and core

A preview published by investinglive cites Westpac's calendar for an expected 0.6% rise in headline CPI in September from August. That would lift the annual rate to about 3.7%, from 3.4% in August and a four-month high. The same preview cites the Cleveland Fed's nowcast at about 0.5% for the month and 3.6% for the year.

The two annual forecasts differ by about a tenth of a point.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.2% on the month and to stay at 2.4% for the year. The BLS reported core up 0.3% in August and 2.4% over 12 months. The preview says August was lifted by a one-off jump in telephone services after a methodology change. It adds that analysts expect hotel prices and used-car prices to correct, while airfares rise as jet fuel costs pass through.

How gasoline and Brent crude feed the headline

The BLS August report supplies the baseline. Gasoline rose 3.9% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis and was up 27.4% from a year earlier. The energy index rose 2.1% in August after falling 1.5% in July, and it was up 16.3% over 12 months.

For September, the investinglive preview expects energy to rise about 5.5% on the month, led by gasoline. It describes that as the largest energy contribution since March. The preview also says Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel and lists fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure as a continuing energy risk.

What the data means for the Fed's October decision

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, according to the investinglive preview. The Fed's calendar confirms that a meeting was held on September 15-16 and that its minutes were released October 7. The September statement itself was not available in the material reviewed.

The preview says the odds of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting fell to about one in four after September payrolls showed 29,000 jobs added. It says a December increase is still largely priced in by markets. It also says Goldman Sachs had expected an October hike, but on the assumption that oil would fall toward $85.

The preview says a firm core figure would likely revive bets on an October hike, while a soft one would reinforce expectations for December. Those are market views reported by the preview, not Fed statements.

The Fed's 2026 calendar lists no statement or press conference yet for the October 27-28 meeting.

Mortgage costs and household budgets

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40% on October 8. The prior week's average was 7.28%, and a year earlier it was 6.30%.

Gasoline's 27.4% annual rise in August was larger than the 16.3% rise in the energy index, according to the BLS release. Airfares are among the items analysts expect to rise as jet fuel costs pass through, according to the preview.

Food prices are expected to stay subdued in the September report.

What happens next

The preview says producer price and retail sales data are due Thursday. It adds that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the IMF meetings in Bangkok early Friday, his last scheduled appearance before the October meeting.

The BLS schedule lists the next CPI release, covering October, for November 10, 2026. This article will need updating once the September figures are published.

Related coverage: Core PCE hit 3.49% in September 2026 while core CPI showed 2.39%; What core inflation at 2.4% signals about the Fed's policy challenge; Fed Raises Rates to 4%, Pushing Treasury Yields Above 5%.