What Jobless Claims of 194,000 Show Before the Fed's Oct. 27-28 Meeting

The Labor Department reported on Oct. 22, 2026 that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 194,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended Oct. 17, according to a Reuters report published that day. The figure was 6,000 lower than the prior week and below the 200,000 that economists in a Reuters poll had expected.

Continuing claims, which count people already receiving benefits, rose by 25,000 to 1.728 million in the week ended Oct. 10, Reuters reported. The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28.

Initial Claims Hover Near 57-Year Lows

Reuters put initial claims near 57-year lows. The 194,000 reading was the sixth straight week at or below 200,000, and the mid-July low of 189,000 was the lowest reading since 1969. The figures are seasonally adjusted.

United Press International, citing the Labor Department's Thursday release, put the four-week average of initial claims at 197,750. UPI also reported unadjusted initial claims of 172,390, down 19,321 from the prior week. Analysts had expected a seasonal drop of 14,179 in that unadjusted count, so the actual decline was larger. UPI reported that the weekly count was nearly the lowest since the 1960s.

Continuing Claims Stay Above 1.7 Million

Continuing claims stood at 1.728 million for the week ended Oct. 10, up 25,000 from the prior week, according to Reuters. UPI put the insured unemployment rate at 1.1% for that week, seasonally adjusted, and said continuing claims totaled about 1.7 million people.

Reuters quoted Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, saying that if the pattern of the last two years holds, continuing claims should peak in the next few weeks.

Reuters also reported that recent college graduates and others who have limited or no work history are ineligible for unemployment benefits, and that some long-term unemployed people may have exhausted their eligibility, keeping continuing claims at low levels. Initial claims are near 57-year lows, but continuing claims still sit above 1.7 million.

Employers Reluctant to Hire or Fire

UPI described employers as reluctant both to hire and to fire workers. It paired that picture with September's jobs report, which showed 29,000 nonfarm payroll gains and an unemployment rate that rose to 4.2%. Reuters reported that payrolls had risen by 133,000 in August, and that Labor Day falling late in September may have depressed the September figure.

Reuters attributed low layoffs to strong profit growth amid robust domestic demand. It also cited a smaller workforce, reflecting retirements and the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, as a factor shielding workers from job cuts. Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, told Reuters: 'Workers are suddenly irreplaceable in many industries.'

Hiring has also been held back by uncertainty from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and from tariffs on imports, according to Reuters. Some economists worry that tighter financial conditions and higher rates could weaken the labor market next year. The median duration of unemployment was 11.5 weeks in September, near a 4½-year high.

Fed Meets on October 27-28 With Claims Data in Hand

The Federal Reserve's calendar lists an FOMC meeting for Oct. 27-28, 2026, one of eight scheduled meetings this year. The calendar lists no Summary of Economic Projections for the October session, while the Sept. 15-16 meeting did include one. The next meeting on the calendar is Dec. 8-9.

Reuters reported that the Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, and that economists expect it to hold at the October meeting. The same report said economists expect another hike in December. Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics said the Fed's employment mandate is 'clearly satisfied.'

The claims release came five days before that session. Further weekly figures will come from the Labor Department's regular Thursday report.